Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
TURKISH AIRLINES · FLIGHT TK 6621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
TK 6621 · IST → MIA
departs 6:52 PM +03 · arrives 11:56 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave IST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 36 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IST
↓
Mondays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IST (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
MIA (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.56 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.