Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1458 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

UA 1458 · SFO → MIA

departs 12:15 PM PT · arrives 8:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at SFO that day

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1458 · SFO → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?