Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

LATAM ECUADOR · FLIGHT XL 1452 LANDED 2:10 PM ET, ~29 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Monday, October 26 Yesterday

XL 1452 · UIO → MIA

took off · landed 2:10 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 39 kt, 0.7 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at UIO

↓ Mondays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

UIO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts32 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.56 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

XL 1452 · UIO → MIA

Odds over time