Schedule: the flights that flew on Monday, Oct 19, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 3431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 26 Yesterday
YX 3431 · IAD → YYZ
departs 8:25 AM ET · arrives 10:09 AM EDT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 10/26
Today 23%
Wed 10/28 6%
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at YYZ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to YYZ?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
YYZ (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.