9E 4803 · TYS → MSP

took off 8:35 PM ET · landed 9:30 PM CT (scheduled 7:20 PM ET → 8:48 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
✓
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSP that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TYS

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TYS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 4803 · TYS → MSP

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSP?