9X 544 · HNL → MKK

took off 11:57 AM HT · landed 12:18 PM HT (scheduled 11:54 AM HT → 12:46 PM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MKK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day

↓ MKK usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.66 in

MKK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.52 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 544 · HNL → MKK

Odds over time

How late did it get to MKK?