Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 544
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 544 · HNL → MKK
departs 12:00 PM HT · arrives 12:54 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MKK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MKK?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.4 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 3.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
12pm departures from HNL are often late
↓
MKK usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into MKK at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.18 in
MKK (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.