Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 627 · HNM → OGG
departs 4:59 PM HT · arrives 5:43 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 46%
Sun 11/1 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave HNM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at HNM that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
4pm departures from HNM are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNM (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.07 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.