Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
9X 627 · HNM → OGG
departs 5:01 PM HT · arrives 5:48 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 25h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Wed 10/28
Sun 11/1 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±1 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave HNM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNM that day
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
5pm departures from HNM are usually not late
Weather at each end
HNM (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.06 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 2.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.