Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 718
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 718 · MKK → OGG
departs 7:13 PM HT · arrives 8:11 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 37%
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30 25%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
−10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.12 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.