Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 771 · MKK → OGG
departs 11:24 AM HT · arrives 12:22 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 41%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at OGG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to OGG?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OGG is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MKK that day
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at OGG that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Arrivals into OGG at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.52 in
OGG (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.