Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
9X 829 · LNY → HNL
departs 6:49 PM HT · arrives 7:49 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 37%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at LNY that day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
6pm departures from LNY are usually not late
Weather at each end
LNY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.07 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.49 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.