Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 829 · LNY → HNL
departs 6:50 PM HT · arrives 7:47 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Wed 10/28 37%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
5%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LNY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −10 pts in 24h
−10 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LNY that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
LNY usually runs smoothly
↓
9X's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LNY (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.23 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.