9X 863 · MKK → HNL

took off 4:10 PM HT · landed 4:34 PM HT (scheduled 4:04 PM HT → 5:02 PM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to HNL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKK that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 4pm departures from MKK are usually not late

Weather at each end

MKK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.12 in

HNL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 863 · MKK → HNL

Odds over time

How late did it get to HNL?