Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHERN AIRWAYS EXPRESS · FLIGHT 9X 863
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 29
9X 863 · MKK → HNL
departs 4:07 PM HT · arrives 5:07 PM HT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Wed 10/28 42%
Thu 10/29
Fri 10/30 26%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 31%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MKK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
4pm departures from MKK are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MKK (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.08 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.