9X 988 · MKK → OGG

departs 2:30 PM HT · arrives 3:27 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±2 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MKK that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 2pm departures from MKK are usually not late

Weather at each end

MKK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.12 in

OGG (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9X 988 · MKK → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?