tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1111 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 1111 · DFW → YYZ

departs 1:24 PM CT · arrives 5:34 PM EDT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure
Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?
24% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 6.6d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to YYZ?

  1. On time or early
    75%
  2. 15–30 min late
    5%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    9%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    6%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    3%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.