AA 1516 · MIA → SXM

departs 12:33 PM ET · arrives 3:43 PM AST

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SXM more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SXM?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 36 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ SXM usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.41 in

SXM (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1516 · MIA → SXM

Odds over time

How late will it get to SXM?