AA 1622 · LAS → MIA

took off 11:48 PM PT · expected to land 6:53 AM ET (scheduled 12:00 AM PT → 7:37 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12am departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.47 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1622 · LAS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?