Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1868 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

AA 1868 · DFW → PIT

departs 3:06 PM CT · arrives 6:52 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 0.75 mi forecast at PIT that day

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.75 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1868 · DFW → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?