AA 1916 · ORD → SAT

took off 12:35 PM CT · landed 3:02 PM CT (scheduled 10:26 AM CT → 1:34 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1916 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAT?