AA 2271 · MIA → LGA

departs 5:21 PM ET · arrives 8:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±7 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
28%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.47 in

LGA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2271 · MIA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?