AA 2691 · FDF → MIA

departs 2:30 PM AST · arrives 6:29 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts −19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
9%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FDF

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

FDF (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts36 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.41 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2691 · FDF → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?