AA 909 · SVD → MIA

departs 3:04 PM AST · arrives 7:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±7 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
16%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SVD

Weather at each end

SVD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 909 · SVD → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?