AM 645 · LAX → MEX

took off 3:13 PM PT · expected to land 7:18 PM CST (scheduled 3:02 PM PT → 7:37 PM CST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MEX?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 3pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 645 · LAX → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?