Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 22, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AEROMÉXICO · FLIGHT AM 645 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 29

AM 645 · LAX → MEX

departs 2:00 PM PT · arrives 6:48 PM CST

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.01 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AM 645 · LAX → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?