AS 1455 · PDX → ANC

took off 6:09 PM PT · landed 8:42 PM AKT (scheduled 5:45 PM PT → 8:50 PM AKT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ANC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at PDX that day

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at ANC that day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.22 in

ANC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1455 · PDX → ANC

Odds over time

How late did it get to ANC?