AS 230 · OTZ → ANC

took off 11:16 AM AKDT · landed 12:39 PM AKT (scheduled 11:22 AM AKDT → 1:05 PM AKT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ANC?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at OTZ that day

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at ANC that day

↓ 11am departures from OTZ are usually not late

↓ OTZ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OTZ (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility9.28571 mi Precip0.16 in

ANC (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 230 · OTZ → ANC

Odds over time

How late did it get to ANC?