AS 305 · MIA → SEA

took off 9:06 PM ET · landed 12:19 AM PT (scheduled 6:20 PM ET → 10:00 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SEA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.43 in

SEA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 305 · MIA → SEA

Odds over time

How late did it get to SEA?