Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 981 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

AS 981 · OGG → LAX

departs 12:22 PM HT · arrives 8:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.23 in

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 981 · OGG → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?