AV 3 · MIA → BAQ

departs 12:25 PM ET · arrives 2:16 PM -05

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at BAQ more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±0 pts +19 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BAQ?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BAQ

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.47 in

BAQ (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 3 · MIA → BAQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to BAQ?