Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 4916 LANDED 11:53 AM ET, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

AV 4916 · MIA → MLB

took off 11:12 AM ET · landed 11:53 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MLB more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

No breakdown for this forecast yet.

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.64 in

MLB (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 4916 · MIA → MLB

Odds over time