Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AVIANCA · FLIGHT AV 4923 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Today

AV 4923 · MIA → BOG

departs 6:10 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM -05

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOG?

On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
25%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.64 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 4923 · MIA → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?