AV 7 · MIA → BOG

took off 7:53 PM ET · expected to land 9:56 PM -05 (scheduled 5:14 PM ET → 7:54 PM -05)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BOG more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOG?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
82%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 28 kt forecast at MIA that day

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOG

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.64 in

BOG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AV 7 · MIA → BOG

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOG?