Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 254
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
B6 254 · DCA → JFK
departs 6:21 AM ET · arrives 7:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 7%
Thu 10/29 9%
Fri 10/30 18%
Sat 10/31 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
4%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Arrive at JFK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to JFK?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JFK (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.