BA 206 · MIA → LHR

took off 6:53 PM ET · expected to land 6:17 AM GMT (scheduled 6:21 PM ET → 6:18 AM GMT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LHR?

LIVE

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 31 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 6pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.64 in

LHR (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 206 · MIA → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?