Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BRITISH AIRWAYS · FLIGHT BA 221 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

BA 221 · LHR → STL

departs 4:24 PM GMT · arrives 8:21 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 4pm departures from LHR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 221 · LHR → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?