BW 790 · POS → MIA

departs 10:31 AM AST · arrives 2:25 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at POS

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

POS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.48 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BW 790 · POS → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?