Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4292
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4292 · IAH → HSV
departs 6:46 PM CT · arrives 8:56 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 16%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at HSV that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
HSV (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1.25 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.