Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4292
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4292 · IAH → HSV
departs 6:29 PM CT · arrives 8:26 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 22h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 10%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 11%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HSV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at HSV more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HSV?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HSV usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
HSV (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.