Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4322
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4322 · IAH → MFE
departs 2:43 PM CT · arrives 4:17 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MFE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MFE?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
2pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
MFE (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.