Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4323
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4323 · IAH → MOB
departs 4:58 PM CT · arrives 6:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MOB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at MOB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MOB?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MOB
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
MOB (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.