Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4343
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4343 · IAH → SGF
departs 12:36 PM CT · arrives 2:33 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 8h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 12%
Sat 10/31 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SGF (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.