Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4343
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4343 · IAH → SGF
departs 12:26 PM CT · arrives 2:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 10/28
Sat 10/31 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
SGF (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.