Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4849
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4849 · IAD → GSO
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSO (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.