Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4849
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
C5 4849 · IAD → GSO
departs 10:34 PM ET · arrives 12:04 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at GSO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSO?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
10pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
GSO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.