Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4996
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4996 · SGF → IAH
departs 3:10 PM CT · arrives 5:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 18%
Sat 10/31 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SGF (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.