CM 410 · MIA → PTY

departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM EST

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PTY?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
14%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 37 kt, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ 3pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ PTY usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts36 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.41 in

PTY (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 410 · MIA → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?