Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1851 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 6:28 PM ET (17 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 27 Today

DL 1851 · MCO → LGA

departs 6:02 PM ET · arrives 8:40 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1851 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?