Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow
DL 1851 · MCO → LGA
departs 6:02 PM ET · arrives 8:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Wed 10/28
Thu 10/29 24%
Fri 10/30 58%
Sat 10/31 24%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
7%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 32 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.36 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.